SEC is Close to Approving Spot Bitcoin ETFs As US Exchanges Start Posting Application Filings

The odds of spot Bitcoin exchange-traded funds (ETFs) are increasing significantly as their final application fillings were posted by exchanges that will list them. After the SEC’s feedback last month, issuers such as Grayscale, Fidelity and BlackRock supplied the amended 19b-4 filings. As a result, they expect multiple issuers to be approved at the same time.

Amendments are Not Approvals, But They Are a Step Forward

While speaking to CoinDesk, one of the issuers stated that the amendments are a step in the right direction, but they do not represent approval. The deadline for one of SEC’s actions is January 10 and the regulator may approve all applications by that period.

Jenn Rosenthal, a spokeswoman for Grayscale, released a statement in which she said that the filing is a big step forward towards “uplisting GBTC as a spot bitcoin ETF.” She also added that the company is ready to operate GBTC as soon as it receives the necessary green light.

Analysts are looking optimistic. They state that the odds of the ETFs being approved in the US are between 85% and 90%. Eric Balchunas, an ETF analyst, is among those who are almost convinced that the SEC will give the thumbs up.

In an X (formerly Twitter) post this Saturday, he said that he believes that the odds of the ETFs being rejected are around 5%. He touched on this subject previously in November and stated that the odds of rejection then are 10%.

Market Participants Are A Bit More Pessimistic

Unlike analysts, market participants are not that optimistic on this matter. Even though the number of participants who think that EFTs will get approved is rising, it is still not the same as the experts. In the last week, they have wagered over $500,000 in the past week on the filings being either delayed or denied.

They do not think that the SEC will get the job done by January 15. Regardless, a majority of the market expects that the filings will get approved at some point. That will be a major advancement for the crypto market as it is likely to attract billions of dollars from professional investors.

In order for the EFTs to launch, both S-1 and 19b-4 fillings need to be approved. An S-1 filling is the initial registration form that is required by SEC. Any security that wants to be listed on a national exchange must have this filling. Under the Securities Act of 1933, this form is also known as a registration statement.

On the other hand, a 19b-4 filling is a form that self-regulatory organizations (SROs) use to inform the SEC of a proposed rule change. SROs are required to submit these forms to the SEC before actually making the changes. Once a 19b-4 filing is submitted, it takes about 90 days for the SEC to approve it or deny it. Each 19b-4 filling has a public comment period as well.